Calculated Risk compiles some excellent indicators for the road ahead:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/credit-crisis-watching-for-signs-of.html
Showing posts with label Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crisis. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Bailout, round three
This blog is rapidly turning into my thoughts on the macroeconomic crisis, a shift in focus which would likely amuse my econ professors no end.
In any event, the current macro crisis has real-world implication for marketers and business. Just among my friends and associates, businesses from jet brokerages to bike shops are experiencing significant issues as the credit crunch dries up liquidity and with it their room to maneuver.
It's an aphorism that small business drives the American economy. If so, we'd better hope that the (very) small sample of my friends is not representative of the economy at large.
As for marketing, I think times of fear are also times of opportunity. The current crisis strikes me as an excellent time for working on brand awareness. In times of flux, people change their buying behaviors and are rather likely more receptive to new messages as they seek information. In short, when times are tough, marketers should be aggressive-not just to preserve market share, but also with an eye toward expansion.
In semi-related blog news, I'm going to try and jazz up the format here, especially with links. If you've got a favorite marketing site or are also blogging, please mention it in the comments or email me.
In any event, the current macro crisis has real-world implication for marketers and business. Just among my friends and associates, businesses from jet brokerages to bike shops are experiencing significant issues as the credit crunch dries up liquidity and with it their room to maneuver.
It's an aphorism that small business drives the American economy. If so, we'd better hope that the (very) small sample of my friends is not representative of the economy at large.
As for marketing, I think times of fear are also times of opportunity. The current crisis strikes me as an excellent time for working on brand awareness. In times of flux, people change their buying behaviors and are rather likely more receptive to new messages as they seek information. In short, when times are tough, marketers should be aggressive-not just to preserve market share, but also with an eye toward expansion.
In semi-related blog news, I'm going to try and jazz up the format here, especially with links. If you've got a favorite marketing site or are also blogging, please mention it in the comments or email me.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Credit crisis
As I write, the market is staging a mini-comeback from yesterday's debacle. The inter-bank loan rate has tightened up though, so I guess there's still a chance that we may all end up driving to California in a Model T to pick grapes.
On a more macro level, I see that the dollar has gained against the pound and that US Treasury 30-year notes took a substantial gain yesterday. Continued asinine government intervention may well derail us yet, but I'm hopeful that these macro signs indicate that the dollar's value will stay reasonably strong.
Given this stabilization in the markets, I hope that Congress and Secretary Paulson take some more time to hammer out a deal that the world is going to have to live with for decades to come. Beyond any bailout, I'd like to see a plan that addresses the underlying issues that created the bubble. The particulars of any plan are likely less important than whether the plan succeeds in rebuilding market confidence. A robust regulatory framework that assures the general public that this won't happen again is also crucial, but I'm much less sanguine about Congress' ability to agree on goals for such a regulator, never mind actually building a new agency or division from scratch.
In short, for those of us pursuing startups, I think it's reasonable to expect that the credit crunch is going to fuel a venture crunch in which money becomes even harder to come by.
On a more macro level, I see that the dollar has gained against the pound and that US Treasury 30-year notes took a substantial gain yesterday. Continued asinine government intervention may well derail us yet, but I'm hopeful that these macro signs indicate that the dollar's value will stay reasonably strong.
Given this stabilization in the markets, I hope that Congress and Secretary Paulson take some more time to hammer out a deal that the world is going to have to live with for decades to come. Beyond any bailout, I'd like to see a plan that addresses the underlying issues that created the bubble. The particulars of any plan are likely less important than whether the plan succeeds in rebuilding market confidence. A robust regulatory framework that assures the general public that this won't happen again is also crucial, but I'm much less sanguine about Congress' ability to agree on goals for such a regulator, never mind actually building a new agency or division from scratch.
In short, for those of us pursuing startups, I think it's reasonable to expect that the credit crunch is going to fuel a venture crunch in which money becomes even harder to come by.
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